U.S . lawmakers will get another chance to pass cryptocurrency legislation as momentum might be on the industry's side to help bills gain traction in the new year.

Washington is expected to have the most pro-crypto Congress yet and support from the top, given President-elect Donald Trump's many promises to crypto.

The House Financial Services Committee, the likely starting point for that crypto legislation in the new year, will be led by Rep. French Hill, R-Ark. Hill currently leads that committee's digital asset-focused panel and has worked on a number of crypto-related bills, including one to regulate stablecoins and another focused on market structure called FIT21.

“Should FIT21 and stablecoin legislation not pass during the lame duck, both bills will be a top priority for me in the 119^th Congress," Hill said in an emailed statement to The Block.

It will take about three to four months for lawmakers to get settled in, but afterward, they will likely "hit the ground running," said Ron Hammond, director of government relations at the Blockchain Association, in an interview with The Block.

"We will see a reintroduction of a lot of bills that we are very, very familiar with," Hammond said.

Stablecoin

Lawmakers in the House have been trying to pass a stablecoin bill for years. House Financial Services Committee Chair Patrick McHenry, R-N.C., retiring in January, has been working with top Democrat Maxine Waters, D-Calif. To create a regulatory framework for stablecoins since 2022. Waters will again be the ranking Democrat of that committee.

Their stablecoin bill advanced out of the Republican-led committee last year but has not gained traction. At the time, Waters called the bill "deeply problematic" due to a provision that allows state regulators to approve stablecoin issuances without Federal Reserve input.

Hill could decide to reintroduce the House version of the stablecoin bill, but other lawmakers could also take up the mantle, Hammond said.

"It will likely start in the House again and we will probably see that moving forward because the Senate is going to be very tied up in the early part of the year with nominations and such," Hammond said.

Some changes could be made to the bill. A sticking point has been divvying up regulatory authorities between state and federal. A reintroduced bill could be more "state friendly" in a Republican-led Congress, Hammond said.

On the Senate side, Sen. Bill Hagerty, R-Tenn., unveiled a discussion draft of legislation in October that would create a regulatory framework for stablecoins. It closely resembles the House version.

When asked if a stablecoin bill could be passed into law in 2025, DeFi Education Fund CEO Miller Whitehouse-Levine said it was a slim chance.

"Hope springs eternal," he said, giving the bill a 25% in 2025 and a 75% chance of passing in 2026.

FIT21

Current House Financial Services Committee Chair Patrick McHenry, R-N.C., led efforts to help the House pass FIT21. The bill would grant more power and funding to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to oversee crypto spot markets and "digital commodities," particularly bitcoin and sets parameters for the Securities and Exchange Commission.

It's unclear where FIT21 could go next, Hammond said, in part because the SEC and CFTC will be different in the new year. Trump tapped former SEC Commissioner Paul Atkins to lead the SEC, who has shown a friendly approach to crypto.

"Potentially a lot of these things could be done on the regulatory side versus legislative side," the Blockchain Association's Hammond said.

There could be room for some changes in FIT21 on how decentralization is defined, said the DeFi Education Fund's Whitehouse-Levine.

"FIT21 is using the decentralization test to try and differentiate between transactions that are appropriately subject to enhanced disclosure requirements given the nature of those transactions and transactions that are not," Whitehouse-Levine said. "The dividing line that FIT21 proposes is one around whether the transactions are involving a project or a network that is decentralized or not."

A companion bill, the same bill introduced in both chambers of Congress, has not been introduced on the Democratic-controlled Senate side, but Whitehouse-Levine said that could happen next year.

"I could easily see a companion bill," he said.

When asked the likelihood of FIT21 becoming law in 2025, Whitehouse-Levine said it was unclear.

"Congress is going to have many, many competing priorities next year," he said. "That's going to include major tax related legislation, major border related legislation, etc. A specific bill aside, there's going to be intense competition for floor time that I think will affect the prospects of all crypto bills, be they FIT21 or others."

'Tax Super Bowl'

Taxes may be the hot topic in the new year as lawmakers face a deadline for when Trump's Tax Cuts and Jobs Act expires at the end of next year.

"That's the idea basically, that everyone is gearing up for what we're calling the 'Tax Super Bowl,'" said Alison Mangiero, executive director at the Proof of Stake Alliance, an advocacy group for technology around staking.

One of those bills that could be included in the TCJA is a measure introduced by Reps. Wiley Nickel, D-N.C., and Drew Ferguson, R-Ga., would clarify that staking rewards should only be taxed at the time of sale. POSA supports that bill and Mangiero said she is hopeful language from it will be included in renewing the TCJA.

Other factors

The idea of creating a strategic bitcoin reserve has been circulating at both the federal and state levels. Ahead of elections in November, Trump vowed to create a strategic bitcoin reserve. Republican Sen. Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming has a draft bill that would direct the U.S. Treasury to buy one million bitcoin over a period of five years.

Lummis' bill is likely to be reintroduced, Hammond said.

"I don't see it going forward too much, at least at this stage," Hammond said, adding that the bill does not have a companion in the Senate and does not have bipartisan support.

Another factor that could affect crypto legislation is Warren's new spot as the ranking Democrat of the influential Senate Banking Committee.

"It certainly doesn't help," Whitehouse-Levine said. "Obviously she is no fan of the industry."

Warren won't be as powerful as former Senate Banking Committee Chair Sherrod Brown, Hammond said. Brown had been critical of crypto and called for a crackdown on the use of cryptocurrency to fund terrorism and evade sanctions and has told federal agencies to use their current authority to go after bad actors in the industry.

Warren could influence what is called a "four corners sign off," meaning when the chair and ranking member of relevant House and Senate committees get together to agree on certain measures, it can then go into a bigger piece of legislation, Hammond said.

"If you have one hold up, that means that piece of legislation is not getting into a large must pass bill and Sen. Warren could easily be that hold up," Hammond said.

Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures.

© 2024 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

On-Chain Metrics

Polkadot

Presented by